Yes, shifting explanations alone can show pretext. A changing explanation for a firing can serve as evidence of lying. Numerous courts have so held. See, e.g., Henderson v. AT&T Corp., 939 F.Supp. 1326, 1338 (S.D. Tex. 1996); Burton v. Freescale Semiconductor, Inc., 798 F.3d 222, 238-239 (5th Cir. 2015). So, when Pres. Trump initially said he knew nothing about payments to Stormy Daniels and that reporters should ask his lawyer Michael Cohen about those payments, that was one explanation. And, now a month later, he says he did know about the payment of $130,000 to Stormy Daniels and it was not a campaign contribution. This is a new explanation. Now, this is a shifting explanation. As the Fifth Circuit said in Burton, a jury can infer pretext from shifting explanations. Burton, 798 F.3d at 236. A jury need not draw that inference. But, it can do so.
And, as lawyers around the country are saying at this moment, Pres. Trump just made his defense much more difficult.